Don’t let COVID 19 distract you from the super-cycle of transformation
Very understandably, the pandemic continues to occupy all of our minds. It is having a direct and indirect impact on so many lives around the world. Hard as it is, we need to stretch our minds to a future time beyond the virus.
Taking place all around us is a ‘super-cycle’ of change, a real transformation, though many people are not taking sufficient notice. It will have fundamental consequences for all areas of society. It is in the early stages and has decades yet to run. It is termed the Fourth Industrial Era by the World Economic Forum. MIT Sloan professors Brynjolfsson and McAfee call it the Second Machine Age.
It is centred around breakthroughs in emerging technology fields such as robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the internet of things, decentralized consensus, 5G, 3D printing, and fully autonomous vehicles.
Individually, these technologies are talked about regularly and may even seem somewhat familiar. What may be less appreciated is the compounding effect of them. Taken together, they are simply mind-blowing.
Six D model
To help understand why most people are underestimating the current transformational time, it is helpful to use the Six D model, created by Singularity University. The six Ds are:
- Digitised – the transition of something from atoms to bits or the creation of something new, directly in bits, that did not previously exist. This allows designs and solutions which are simply not possible in an atom limited world
- Deceptive – the ability to re-imagine information once it is digitised is, at first, under appreciated
- Disruptive – after a while, the exponential growth of new ways of operating, created by the digitisation of information starts to re-write society
- Demonetised – the product/service is very inexpensive to produce in a digital format and hence the price moves towards zero
- Dematerialised – technology reduces the size of products and combines features previously found in multiple products, hence reducing the number of atom-based devices
- Democratised – access to digital offerings becomes available more widely and quicker than ever before
It is possible to find examples of product, services and sectors at different stages of this Six D journey. However, if a distribution curve was drawn, it would be heavily skewed to the left. Meaning, most sectors have yet to make their way through the full Six D transformation.
Deception
There are several reasons why many of us are deceiving ourselves and under appreciate what is happening around us. These include:
- Distractions – our daily lives are busy with many different topics. We have limited time to think about the wider world and super-cycles
- Hidden – even when these technologies go mainstream, from a consumer point of view, they are often invisible as they are used, behind the scenes so to speak, in the creation, manufacturing and distribution of products and services
- Unknown – our brains default to what we know already. Thinking about the unknown requires extra energy, however, the brain is programmed to conserve energy
- Patterns – our brains like patterns. They help us navigate a complex world. The compounding effect of these new technologies challenge these patterns
- Humble – it is necessary to accept that we do not know answers to all the questions. That how we have operated until now, may not be optimal for a rapidly changing future. This requires self-awareness, empathy and personal reflection
- Experimental – a lot of these technologies are in experimental phase and whilst they often grab a headline, they still feel like ‘tomorrow’s world’ and will not affect us any time soon
- Exponential – once they take hold, the successful technologies create exponential change. Humans are not programmed to identify and handle the speed and impact of exponential change. We tend to identify and react to such change too slowly
You have to go back to the likes of the World Wars, the introduction of the Steam Engine, the Enlightenment and the Renaissance to find moments in human history that are as dramatic as now. In case you have just breezed through that last sentence, pause and take a moment to reflect.
The ‘super cycle’ of change we are living through will alter many parts of our lives. The journey may be a bit messy, not exactly linear and come with complexity and complications. It will also present numerous opportunities.
Historians will recognise that whilst COVID 19 was a big deal for society, it was in fact an accelerant for this overarching ‘super cycle’ of transformation. The question is, what about you? Are you living your own deception or curious about a very different future?
