Exponential change – can you handle it?

An example of such a progression is: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 ie the subject doubles every step. This creates a ‘J’ curve shape.

Contrast this with an example of linear development: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ie increases by one unit per step and it not calculated as a proportion of the subject itself. This creates a rising straight line, rather than a ‘J’ curve.

Linear growth is impressive; however, in this example it can be seen that after just eight steps, exponential is way ahead. For those who know the fable of the sage, the king and the chessboard, you will know where you get to after sixty four squares.

Given the enormous power of exponential, you might wonder why we do not talk about it more often. This shows the dichotomy of humans. On the one hand, we are very versatile and adaptable in the face of change. On the other hand, most of us are usually slow to acknowledge it and act. We prefer life to be stable with, at most, incremental change that we feel in control of. Such stepwise progress minimizes the drain on our brain energy, something we are biologically engineered to do.

COVID 19 is a topical and unfortunately disturbing example of exponential development. Many people, including plenty of leaders, failed to recognize early, the likely extent of the speed and impact of the spread of the virus. Had they done so, it is quite possible that many sectors of society such as governments, healthcare, financial markets and businesses, would have acted differently.

There are many other exponential changes all around us. A few examples include:

• Population growth – for the last couple of hundred years, world population has grown at an increasing rate

• Compound interest – a deposit savings account will grow through the effect of interest on interest

• Moore’s Law – the observation that the number of transistors on a microchip has been doubling every eighteen months to two years for several decades

• Electric vehicles – after a slow start, the number of electric vehicles is growing significantly

• Satellite launches – there has been an increased growth in the number of small satellites as the use of space for multiple purposes accelerates

• Sequencing the genome – the cost to sequence the genome has fallen precipitously over the past two decades outpacing even Moore’s Law

The impact of these examples is huge upon society, well beyond normal change. Disruptive would be an apt description.

Exponential goes exponential

If we stand back and look at the human story on this planet, we see periods of little change punctuated by moments of significant development. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that right now we are in one of those significant phases. As such, we all need to become more cognisant of exponential change in various elements of our society. Beyond the earlier examples, the consequences of which are still playing out, there are a growing number of other examples, such as:

• Webinars – there is no doubt that COVID 19 has created a rapid increase of the availability of webinars from many sources. It is likely that the elevated use of this tool will remain after the virus has passed. To help navigate the increased content,  where is the Netflix equivalent for webinars?

• Video conferencing – COVID 19 has also driven a significant increase in the use of video conferencing for both business and pleasure. Zoom is the poster child for this, but MS Teams and Google Hangout have also had a coming of age

• Drones – these have moved well beyond novelty value and there are many practical use cases in action today in areas such as agriculture, entertainment, health, commodity mining and construction

• 3D printing – quietly and assuredly, 3D printing has been moving mainstream, with impressive growth rates

• Artificial intelligence – since 2015, AI has gained a second wind, after the initial hype in the previous two decades. It is becoming increasingly important to how we fashion a smart society. There is so much further to run on this

• Quantum computing – still small scale by way of practical application but holds so much promise

Implications of exponential change verses normal change

To deal with change, each of us should have our personal radar constantly scouring our environment for clues as to what is heading our way. Dealing with exponential change requires a significantly elevated level alertness and foresight. This is for the following reasons:

• Speed – initially exponential change is not easy to identify. Unless you are eagle-eyed, it seems to masquerade as normal change. However, within a short space of time, the compound nature creates a speed of advancement that takes people by surprise. Without hard and fast action, the change becomes overwhelming 

• Impact – again, in the early days the visible impact of the change may not be obvious. However, once it begins to take hold, the dramatic nature of impact becomes increasingly visible, often with profound and disruptive implications

• Sustainability – since it arrives seemingly ‘out of the blue’, as the ‘J’ or reverse ‘J’ curve kicks in, most people are taken by surprise. The chances of standing in its way or even rolling back the change, even if desirable, are very limited. Mostly, the change is here to stay, even after the change eventually slows down

Before COVID 19, we were already in a period of increased disruptive change, driven by the shift to the Industrial Era 4.0. COVID 19 gives aspects of this trend a very visible turbo boost.

We all seek to survive and thrive. We can do this better if we improve how we spot and handle exponential change. This is your opportunity to be the guide for others.